So what sort of future can we expect?
Well in the shorter term, I don’t expect a compression breakthrough becoming a consumer deliverable – at least not enough to render MPEG-2 redundant until 2002 or later. So, my forecast is based on MPEG-2 as the high-quality CODEC of choice and MPEG-1, -4 and others used for CD-V and web acquisition and distribution.

Camcorders.
The limitations of “glass” create a niche for a larger digital “handy cam” (1997 Hi8 size) with good size “fast” lens elements. With these, and to provide for megapixel capacity and high-light sensitivity, we will see a return to 1/3” CCDs (single and triple-chippers).

We will record direct to hard drive – expect typically 20-40G in a camcorder.

We will choose our formats, CODECs, frame rates, image size, compression rates, etc from a wide range of choices. Our CODECs will be programmable, and we will be able to flash the BIOS of our camcorders to include new s/w. To simplify things, there will be factory pre-sets, and plenty of user programmable profiles. There will also be a “universal format” which will record a keyframe every second or half-second, and maintain 2 or 3 (50Hz, 60Hz, 75Hz) parallel streams of delta (difference) frames using progressive scan, recording RGB. This format can then output optimally to PAL, NTSC, SECAM, MESECAM, PAL/M, PAL/N or SVGA without any motion estimation required.

Our image size will go from web sizes (e.g. 192 x 144) up to HDTV and upper SVGA (e.g. 1920 x 1440), in square or R601 pixels, refreshing at 50, 60 and/or 75 Hz progressive scan or interlaced. We will record in either YUV or RGB. Our compression choices will go from no loss to “long play”, and error checking and correction (ECC) will be a further option at several levels. We will record as many audio channels as we have inputs (see below). Cheaper camcorders will have less of the upper range (maybe limited to e.g. 1152 x 864 SVGA @ 60Hz).

To monitor and focus this range, at the top prosumer end, expect color viewfinders to reach or exceed 300k pixels, and LCDs possibly even 400k+ (over 400 lines of horizontal resolution) in 5”+ sizes to support 16:9 mode.

Our output will be:

·        analog – composite and Y/C

·        DV (DVCAM audio locked mode an option)

·        File transfer mode (see below)

·        An MPEG-2 4:2:2 video stream (lets call it “DV2”) over IEEE 1394/1394a/1394b Firewire.

·        Probably also “ASF” through Firewire, with adaptors for USB, Parallel and even serial ports

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What Do We Know About?
Docking Stations
NLEs
Protection of Content
Tape Formats